The Plot Against Europe

Because this time they really are out to get us

It isn’t a conspiracy exactly, this loosely coordinated attempt to undermine European liberal democracy and replace it with populist authoritarianism. There isn’t a WhatsApp or Signal group codenamed Blofeld which brings together some of the world’s most powerful men to discuss next steps in helping the AfD to power, how to bring down the BBC, or erode support for Ukraine. But there is definitely a thing, and that thing entered a new phase last week. People who haven’t been paying attention had better start soon.

One: Vlad

Let’s begin with Vladimir. Last week the eternal president of Russia – a man so dominant that he doesn’t even need to have buildings named after him – made a speech to his annual meeting with what was left of the top Russian military officers (the Ukrainians having bagged two in the last fortnight).

Part of the speech was a direct attack on the European supporters of Ukraine. They were podsvinki (little swine) “who want to feast upon the collapse of Russia”. As is his habit, Putin revisited recent history. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, “it seemed to us that we would quickly become members of the so-called civilised family of European nations.”

What a disappointment that turned out to be! Not because Russia was shunned, but because, claimed Putin, “today it turns out there is no civilisation there, only complete degradation.”

This framing – that Europe is a decadent, lost continent – is significant, though it rather contradicts the idea of a powerful NATO threat to Russia. It reminds Russians of Putin’s self-depiction as a defender of Christian values against the hordes of corrupt interlopers who would turn young Russian men into godless homosexuals or trans women. Just as Dmitry Donskoy fought off the (sexually suspect) Mongols, so modern Russia leads the struggle against moral decay.

But this time the audience Putin was addressing wasn’t just domestic. Russia stood ready for peaceful dialogue with Europe, said Putin, but “it is unlikely that this is possible with the current political elites. But in any case, it will be inevitable as we continue to strengthen our position. If not with the current politicians, then when the political elites in Europe change.”

“When the political elites in Europe change.” In other words, we will get Ukraine when the populist tide sweeps away the old order in Europe and replaces it with one more accommodating. In the meantime, Putin said he felt encouraged by developments in the United States.

Two: Vance

As well he might. On December 4th the White House published its National Security Strategy – 30-plus pages in which the administration lays out its perception of the security priorities of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nation. This document is required by Congress and is usually published once towards the beginning of a presidency. Trump produced one in 2017 and Biden in 2022.

In 2017 the document laid heavy emphasis on China, and while more deal-focused than previous documents, retained what you might call a Reaganite understanding of America’s place in the world. An example of this was the description of the threat to the Pacific region and US allies such as Japan and South Korea from North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme.

The 2024 document has not a single mention of North Korea. Quite suddenly and without explanation, Pyongyang’s WMD have disappeared from the US threat list – to be replaced by… us.